The Price of Gas

 

The price of gas has increased tenfold. Heating our homes and operating our industries has become enormously more expensive. Ruinously so, perhaps.

However, I reckon the cost of gas has remained pretty much the same.

The cost price reflects the cash needed to extract the fuel from the ground and transport it to the point of use. I doubt there's much difference in cost between now and pre-war in Ukraine. The huge leap in price only reflects the amount people are willing to pay for the stuff.

There's also a lot of talk in the UK about us having 'our own oil and gas'. As a country we have none. We gave it all away long ago to the likes of BP and Shell who are now free to sell it to the highest bidder. And that's where the money is going. Directly into the pockets of already over-rich people who have no need for more money but feel they are entitled to it anyway.

At 20p per therm, the fossil fuel companies were making handsome profits. Now, at 200p per therm, profits have become astronomical.

How can this be? Why should people who can least afford it be paying into the dividend pot for fossil fuel investors?

It's the system. The one we've been told for decades is the only viable way to run the world. We've been lied to. Sold a pup. Exploited.

The biggest contributors to the Conservative Party and individual MP's, apart from corrupt Russian oligarchs, are the construction industry. There's a reason for this.

Let me use the construction industry, with which I am familiar, as an example of the corrupt system which applies equally to every facet of business in the country and, in fact, most of the world.

Land, like the oil and gas beneath it, ought to belong to everyone but it doesn't. Those with the might to claim vast tracts of our country grabbed it while they could. So, most of the surface of our country is controlled by a group of wealthy landowners. Like the Queen. And Chinese investment companies. And the Russian mafia, sorry, oligarchs.

So, what's the cost of land? Not a lot. Especially if you stole it many years ago.

But the price? Agricultural land can be bought for £5,000-10,000 per acre. This reflects the profit that can be made from growing crops. The exact same piece of land with permission for housing will yield over £1,000,000 per acre when sold as plots to house buyers. Our planning system is designed to enrich  housebuilders. Corruption can be no surprise when such enormous profits are involved. Influencing politicians must be extremely good value for money otherwise why invest large sums in political contributions?

In the UK, the cost of a house has little relation to its price. The price, like that of gas, depends entirely on what people are willing to pay. And their ablility to pay is more dependant on the cost of borrowing money from the banks than anything else. Bear in mind that the exact same house in one place can fetch twice the price of one in a less fashionable district. No difference in cost.

I've rambled on a bit. Sorry. I hope you get the picture. Your energy bills are stuffing the pockets of the rich. Corruption ensures this. The media make sure we remain victims because the media is controlled by the mega-rich.

It doesn't have to be like this but it's the way we've chosen. Maybe its time to choose another way.

Tyrant

I'm a writer of speculative fiction. I am not an expert on armed conflicts or the geopolitical history of Europe.

My main job is to create characters who then act out an interesting story. There's a tyrant king in my fantasy trilogy who might be likened to Putin.

This King has to subjugate the population with fear and suppress any form of crtiticism or opposition with the hangman's noose. Yet he lives in constant fear of something coming along that will destroy him. He, like Putin, is implacable in his selfishness.

As I write this the war in Ukraine has entered its fourth day. Kyiv still stands although it seems inevitable that the overwhelming force deployed by the Russians must prevail at some point. 

If this was a situation in a work of fiction that I was writing, I'd be at the stage of wondering what the endgame might be. It's likely that Putin has underestimated the power of the Ukrainians to resist. In my world, he'd now be turning on the generals who promised him a quick victory and holding them to account.

Invasion has created a reluctant hero in Zelenskyy. I doubt Putin anticipated this. The likely scenario Putin was relying on involved a swift run into Kyiv, capture or kill those in the government who hadn't already fled and installation of a puppet government.

Instead a folk hero, one who unites and inspires the whole country and the whole world. has emerged. 

Given this situation, where can a writer take it? Put yourself in Putin's head. Ask yourself what you would do under the circumstances. You might say that he's irrational, mentally unstable and therefore unpredictable and you'd be right. However, I believe that his actions betray his fear of losing power. The encroachment of democracy is an existencial threat and when Ukraine voted to became western-leaning Putin knew his days of being able to resist popular opinion in Russia were numbered.

Zelenskyy standing firm and remaining in Kyiv may be the most significant factor in the whole situation. Putin can no longer cling to the fable that the Ukrainian people will tolerate a Moscow-led government. He's thoroughly pissed off forty million people who, even if he manages to take some form of control in the major cities, will resist using whatever weapons they can get including Molotov cocktails.

It will all boil down to Putin's state of mind, I'm afraid. From what I understand of his character, he will cling on to power at all costs. That means the Russian heirarchy, the oligarchs and the military, will have to oust him. 

At least that's what would make a reasonably believable plot line. Unfortunately, the difference between fact and fiction is that fiction has to make sense. 

Let's pray we get a good ending.

Stranger then Fiction

Truth is stranger than fiction. This familiar saying is a quote from that master storyteller, Mark Twain. Any writer of fiction, like myself, has to bear this in mind.
Why?
Well, I suppose it's because too much realism can be difficult for a reader to swallow. Real life tends to be fragmented, things happen that are often completely unrelated. The relative importance of events can be very hard to judge and often remain opaque. Things come and go. Things that seemed to matter one moment fade into complete insignificance.
None of these aspects of reality are conducive to telling a good story. In fiction, it's essential to have a structure. A beginning, middle and end. There has to be a satisfactory outcome for the reader, something that can't be guaranteed by a factual account.
You might have observed that books, films and TV programmes based on true events are always heavily dramatised. The complexity of the real has to be simplified and carefully presented in order to tell a story in a way that will hold an audience. Outcomes, especially, are manipulated in order to deliver that essential happy ending.
Here's an example of what I'm trying to say. Consider this as the plot for a thriller.

The Russians invade Ukraine on a pretext. They arm the local thugs and support them with Russian soldiers who are 'on holiday' there. A Russian-supplied ground to air missile system is deployed to shoot down a civilian airliner and kill hundreds of innocent men, women and children. The AA battery is quickly spirited away back to Russia and vigorous denials are issued.

The CIA find satellite evidence of Russian involvement in the atrocity. Secret agents in Russia collect damning information about the incident and also uncover links between the Russian leader and organised crime. More diligent investigative work discovers billions of dollars of offshore funds linked directly to Putin.

OK, so far so good. Let's put an ending to it:

In a race against time, a plucky CIA agent puts all the information together and then manages to dash to the UN building, through a hail of FSB bullets, and give it to the US Ambassador. A Security Council resolution proposed by Russia is blocked when the revelations are made. Russian allies voice their disapproval and withdraw support. Hundreds of thousands of lives are saved in Syria as the disgraced Russian regime is prevented from continuing to support the vicious Assad regime. A popular uprising in Russia ousts the president and the world becomes a better and more peaceful place.

This is the kind of thing required to make a good story. Of course, it's fictional. The true outcome is as follows:

FIFA decide to hold the World Cup in Russia.

See what I mean?

photo credit: Delta_33 Malaysia Airlines 9M-MTC Airbus A330 via photopin (license)

Ukraine

As I write, all hell is about to break loose in Ukraine.

Part of the second Jenny Parker novel, Proceeds of Crime, is set in Ukraine and I have a lot of sympathy for the plight of the Ukrainian people. In the book, Jenny befriends a Ukrainian girl who has found a husband in the UK through a 'Romance Tour' or 'find a bride service'. Her twin sister hasn't been so lucky, though. She's gone missing after a similar attempt to get to the prosperous West.

The situation highlights the disparity in wealth between the Ukraine and the UK. The Ukrainians are often so desperately poor that they will do anything to get to the UK. And I mean anything.

The recent events, the protests in Kiev, the shootings and the ousting of the Russian-friendly president are all a result of the Ukrainians being desperate to improve their economic situation. Many of them feel that this will be achieved by establishing closer ties with the EU. The Russians don't want this to happen.

 I hope and pray that the situation will be resolved peacefully and that good sense and humanity will prevail.






photo credit: Stuck in Customs via photopin cc