I'm a writer of speculative fiction. I am not an expert on armed conflicts or the geopolitical history of Europe.
My main job is to create characters who then act out an interesting story. There's a tyrant king in my fantasy trilogy who might be likened to Putin.
This King has to subjugate the population with fear and suppress any form of crtiticism or opposition with the hangman's noose. Yet he lives in constant fear of something coming along that will destroy him. He, like Putin, is implacable in his selfishness.
As I write this the war in Ukraine has entered its fourth day. Kyiv still stands although it seems inevitable that the overwhelming force deployed by the Russians must prevail at some point.
If this was a situation in a work of fiction that I was writing, I'd be at the stage of wondering what the endgame might be. It's likely that Putin has underestimated the power of the Ukrainians to resist. In my world, he'd now be turning on the generals who promised him a quick victory and holding them to account.
Invasion has created a reluctant hero in Zelenskyy. I doubt Putin anticipated this. The likely scenario Putin was relying on involved a swift run into Kyiv, capture or kill those in the government who hadn't already fled and installation of a puppet government.
Instead a folk hero, one who unites and inspires the whole country and the whole world. has emerged.
Given this situation, where can a writer take it? Put yourself in Putin's head. Ask yourself what you would do under the circumstances. You might say that he's irrational, mentally unstable and therefore unpredictable and you'd be right. However, I believe that his actions betray his fear of losing power. The encroachment of democracy is an existencial threat and when Ukraine voted to became western-leaning Putin knew his days of being able to resist popular opinion in Russia were numbered.
Zelenskyy standing firm and remaining in Kyiv may be the most significant factor in the whole situation. Putin can no longer cling to the fable that the Ukrainian people will tolerate a Moscow-led government. He's thoroughly pissed off forty million people who, even if he manages to take some form of control in the major cities, will resist using whatever weapons they can get including Molotov cocktails.
It will all boil down to Putin's state of mind, I'm afraid. From what I understand of his character, he will cling on to power at all costs. That means the Russian heirarchy, the oligarchs and the military, will have to oust him.
At least that's what would make a reasonably believable plot line. Unfortunately, the difference between fact and fiction is that fiction has to make sense.
Let's pray we get a good ending.
